Two numbers are running the economy right now. Investors are looking at one. Consumers are paying the other.
They are not the same number.
The market is about to learn why that matters. This is not a credit problem. It’s a capital problem.
Energy shocks like this don’t just increase losses, they compress the timeline.
Delinquencies show up faster. Funding tightens sooner.
And by the time ABS spreads move, the outcome has already been determined.